WASHINGTON
STATE UNIVERSITY at SPOKANE
Sample
Syllabus only. COURSE
SYLLABUS
Decision
Analysis for Engineering Managers
EM
545
Fall
2001
Faculty:
Dr. Hal Rumsey
Washington State University at Spokane
West 601 First Avenue
Spokane, WA 99201-3899
(509) 358-7936 FAX
7899
E-Mail: rumsey@wsu.edu
Home Phone: (509) 448-7968
Office Hours: Monday through
Thursday
10 a.m. - 3 p.m., or by appointment.
You
may contact me at the office, or at home during any reasonable hour.
Hal
A. Rumsey, Ph.D., P.E.,
is Associate Professor of Engineering Management at Washington State University
Spokane. Prior to joining WSU, he
served as Director of the Graduate Engineering Management Program and Director
of Graduate Programs at the Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson
AFB, Ohio. Dr. Rumsey is active in
numerous professional organizations and serves as Associate Editor for Quality
for the Engineering Management Journal.
His educational accomplishments include a B.S. in Civil Engineering, an
M.S. in Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, and a Ph.D. in
Engineering Management from the University of Missouri-Rolla.
TEXTS AND SOFTWARE
Making Hard Decisions With DecisionTools Suite, by
Robert T. Clemen,
Terry Reilly, (June
23, 2000), Duxbury Pr; ISBN 0534365973.
DATA Mac & Windows, $379 Mac-$450 Windows,(50% academic discount, student versions are available for $40) TreeAge Software, Inc., Phone (800) 254-1911, Fax (413) 458-0105, Email info@treeage.com.
Expert Choice Windows ~$55 Expert Choice, Inc., (800)447-0506 Ext 15 (Michael Jones), Fax (412)682-7008, E-mail info@expertchoice.com.
COURSE
DESCRIPTION
Individuals
and organizations make decisions every day.
Almost all decisions involve some uncertainty about the outcomes of the
decisions and future conditions. Most
people handle this uncertainty in intuitive ways.
Research has confirmed that intuition is miserably unreliable in
assessing the influence of this uncertainty on the outcomes of current
decisions. Decision analysis
provides a structured discipline for describing, analyzing, and finalizing
decisions involving uncertainty.
Student
Projects: Each student will
complete an individual or group project related to the course.
As a minimum, each student or group will attempt to apply the tools and
techniques of decision analysis to their work place and report on the outcome of
the effort. The level of effort
should be commensurate with the academic credit earned.
BASIS
OF EVALUATION
Mid-Term
Examinations
35%
Student Project
25%
Instructor Discretion
5%
Final Examination
35%
Homework will be
assigned and discussed, but it will not be collected on a routine basis.
SCHEDULE
|
Session |
Topics |
Requirements |
|
1 |
1.
Introduction to Decision Analysis 2.
Elements of Decision Problems |
All All |
|
2 |
3.
Structuring Decisions |
11,12,20,24 Kuniang |
|
3 |
4.
Making Choices Spokane—Even,GPC,
Boeing—Odd,S.E. |
4-2,6,7,14,15,18 GPC, Southern E. |
|
4 |
5.
Sensitivity Analysis |
Eagle (Fig. 5.8, 5.9, 5.13) 9,10,11,
Dumond |
|
5 |
6.
Creativity and Decision Structuring |
What alternatives are available to
burning grass fields? How do
you promote creativity? |
|
6 |
7.
Probability Basics 8.
Subjective Probability |
7-18,19,2,28,29
DA Monthly, Screening 8-12,13,16
Challenger |
|
7 |
9.
Theoretical Probability Models 10.
Using Data |
9- Review 1-10, Overbooking 10-9 thru 17, Overbooking |
|
8 |
11.
Monte Carlo Simulation |
Overbooking |
|
9 |
12.
Value of Information |
12-23,4,5,7 |
|
10 |
13.
Risk Attitudes |
13-7,12,13,24
Texaco |
|
11 |
14.
Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications |
14-4,6,7,8,1`2,17
Nuclear Power |
|
12 |
15.
Conflicting Objectives I: Some
Basic Techniques |
15-3,13,4,27 Use Expert Choice |
|
13 |
16.
Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute
Utility Models The Analytical
Hierarchy Process |
16-7 Do |
|
14 |
17.
Conclusion and Further Reading FINAL
EXAMINATION HANDOUT |
|
|
15 |
Work on Final Exam |
NO
CLASS |
|
16 |
Review
of Final Exam |
Turn
in examination and portfolio. |
1)
Decision portfolio. Each student will create a portfolio of
homework assignments completed for the class.
Each individual will not do every homework problem in the book.
Collectively we will cover most of the problems available in the text.
Part of the insight required to successfully apply more rigor to
decisions in the real world is to examine many approaches and problems which
have been treated with these approaches.